September 16, 2015 |

Consumer Price Index Shows Soft Price Data

consumer-price-index

The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. this morning showed a month-over-month change of -.1% and a year-over-year reading of .2%. The core reading showed a month-over-month reading of .1% and a year-over-year reading of 1.8%. These figures show little to no price pressures and may suggest that recent worry over deflation is a real and significant threat. To understand the Consumer Price Index, you have to understand what you are looking at. Headline CPI: The headline CPI figures factors in changes in a basket... Continue Reading

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September 15, 2015 |

3…2…1…No Lift-Off

Eagle Bird

With a great deal of economic data set for release this week, all eyes will be focused on Thursday’s FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. This is the moment investors have been waiting for over several weeks now and the Fed could potentially drive significant market movement based on its decision regarding interest rates. Odds for a September lift-off appear to have decreased significantly in recent weeks and the Fed may elect to hold off until December or perhaps even longer. While anything is possible,... Continue Reading

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September 4, 2015 |

She Loves Me…She Loves Me Not…

Washington Gold Bar

Watching market developments and listening to the Fed is kind of like the old game of “she loves me she loves me not.” The highly anticipated non-farm payrolls data for August was released this morning and we would argue that the Fed is probably no closer to a decision on rates than they were yesterday or the day before or the day before that… According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. added just 173,000 jobs in August. Consensus estimates were looking for 220,000... Continue Reading

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September 4, 2015 |

Think the Fed Will Hike? Think Again.

USA Federal service USA Federal Reserve Trouble for Stocks

From our vantage point, a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve at this point seems about as likely as the price of gold going to zero. While the central bank has talked the talk for many months now, one has to wonder if such talk is more about saving face than substance. In fact, the only way we see a September rate hike is if the non-farm payrolls data for August is substantially above consensus estimates. Again, we feel this is not likely. If... Continue Reading

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August 28, 2015 |

Is It All About the Fed Now?

all-about-the-fed

After a crazy week of trading in global equity markets, things seem to have calmed down significantly-at least for now. Of course, if Chinese stocks fall several percent Sunday night, then U.S. markets could potentially be in for another difficult Monday. Aside from recent equity market volatility, markets may once again focus on interest rate expectations. The next FOMC meeting is now less than three weeks away. While the Fed had previously indicated that any changes in rates would likely be a game-time decision, expectations... Continue Reading

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August 27, 2015 |

Market Volatility and the Real Culprit

market-volatility-and-the-real-culprit

Markets have been on a roller coaster ride in recent days. Following a massive sell-off in Chinese equities on Monday, U.S. markets opened the week to what can only be described as financial bloodshed. The Dow Jones, for example, saw its biggest single day decline ever and was down nearly 1100 points at one point in the session. Much of the financial media has been focused on economic weakness in China and the volatility that has been seen in Chinese equities. And rightly so. As... Continue Reading

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August 22, 2015 |

Ouch

ouch

The U.S. stock market witnessed massive selling for the second day in a row as investors continue to run for the exit signs in droves. The broad market SP 500 index saw losses today to the tune of over 3 % and closed 64 points lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was hammered for a loss of over 530 points. Concerns over a global economic slowdown and plunging emerging market currencies have been cited by some media outlets as the cause of the selling,... Continue Reading

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August 10, 2015 |

Gold Shows Strength as Rates Set to Rise

Gold

Friday morning saw the release of the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls data for July. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the country added 215,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 5.3 percent. The data was in line with expectations, as consensus estimates were looking for a number of 212,000 jobs created. In addition, there were upward revisions to previous data that added another 14,000 jobs over the previous two months. While this may seem like good news for our economy, Wall Street... Continue Reading

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August 3, 2015 |

Why Silver Could Rally Over 25% Into Year’s End

silvers-rally

While the recent decline in gold prices has been very well covered by seemingly every financial news media outlet in recent months, the decline seen in silver prices has garnered much less attention. Silver, like gold, has been on the defensive as the Federal Reserve prepares to hike interest rates for the first time in years and as stocks and the dollar march higher. Unlike gold, silver has many industrial uses-thousands of them-that put the white metal into a somewhat unique position. Silver has the potential... Continue Reading

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July 31, 2015 |

Where the Truly “Smart” Money Goes to Work

Smart Money

It seems as if everywhere you turn these days, someone is bashing gold. Numerous reasons are given for why gold is a poor investment and why gold prices have been on the decline. “Analysts” will cite such issues as the rising dollar, potentially rising interest rates, higher stocks and more for gold’s lack of upside follow-through. Others will talk about how gold pays no dividend and even comes with a cost of carry. Even hedge funds are now net short gold for the first time... Continue Reading

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